There is only one thing that matters now and that is the US election. Everywhere we look, so much depends on the outcome, and seemingly everything is on the table, including the end of life as we know it, allegedly. Of course, towards the end of a very long election campaign, what is said and what is done, can be very different things. Where do we go from here? This is what the financial markets are telling us:
Equities remain near the all-time highs, even with the recent wobbles. Given the uncertainty as to who will win the election, and what it means for the stock market, that seems a very sanguine view of things. Particularly, as markets evidently also expect that there will be no problems agreeing who actually won, let alone any transition of power.
Bond markets are in a very different place to equities. Yields have been rising on expectations of a slower pace in Fed easing. Investors are also nervous about the effects of potential tariffs on inflation and bond volatility as measured by the MOVE index is at a one year high. The curious thing about that is, the last time we were here, the S&P500 was at 4,120.
The US Dollar has strengthened, and gold is at a record high. That normally spells trouble, but the oil markets are calm, which is usually a good sign. Cryptocurrencies have rallied. That tells us one thing, and brings us to Trump Media and Technology Corporation (DJT). The stock is up 374% from the lows in September, but down by almost half from the high in October. See you on the other side.
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