Why 2022 will be different than we expect.
It’s good to look back in time and learn from the past. As long as one does not get too pre-occupied with those things that went wrong. Lest we need to talk about our feelings with someone who charges us by the hour. Be that as it may, there were some things I predicted that went the wrong way, others were spot on, and a few still remain to be seen (Ten Fearless Predictions). So, here are my seven fearless predictions for 2022.
1. Covid becomes irrelevant. A lot of people have now been infected, more are vaccinated and the brainwashed are dying in large numbers. There is no cure for the common cold, but we have all learned to live with that and so it shall be with this virus by the summer.
2. Equities are going to struggle. Nothing like the printing machines coming to a halt and when everyone is already long, there is only one way to go. Question is, what else are we going to do with our money? Clearly no one is predicting a crash here, but then there is Rivian and you know what I mean.
3. Ethereum will be worth more than $10,000. For those of you still getting used to Bitcoin, try buying an NFT and you will understand there is a whole new world out there. If the alternative is holding bonds with negative real interest rates, better the fear of missing out.
4. Man City will win the Premier League, Liverpool will win the Champions League and Wormatia Worms will win the Oberliga Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar Süd. There, that’s the football done and your guess is as good as mine.
5. Inflation has peaked. Think about it, the world came to a complete stop in 2020. The patient was dead, comatose, kaput and from there we injected the biggest amount of stimulus in the history of mankind. What exactly did we think was going to happen? Of course, there were going to be very large demand and supply chain mismatches. But it’s all going to normalise, it always does, and the long end of the curve tells you all you need to know.
6. Oil will remain range bound. Most of the economies built on revenues from the black gold need prices that are higher than $60 per barrel to break even. On the other hand, it’s an election year and American voters do not like to pay more than $5 per gallon at the pump. As such, we should also not expect prices to move too far in either direction anytime soon.
7. Raducanu will not win Wimbledon this year. Winning one slam is hard enough, doing it at 18 is even harder, and the weight of expectations will take their toll. There is a hill named after someone who never quite made it, but there is a mountain to climb for our new local favourite. Better luck next year.
As ever, please take everything we write here with a pinch of salt and let us know if you disagree in the nicest possible way. Wishing you and your families good health and a happy new year!
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